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For some time now, the fate of the
Farm Bill has been entangled in
the larger debate over budget and
taxes. Since 2010, policymakers
have said they need to slash the Farm Bill
to tame deficits, and that the Farm Bill
could use the legislative ride that a deal on
taxes and the budget might offer.
We got a good glimpse of this possibility
last year during the super committee
process. And, despite the Farm Bill and
larger budget issues going separate ways
this year, they appear as connected as ever
in the lame duck session – a linkage that
may carry into next year.
But there are even bigger issues to
address: Will the president agree to extend
the Bush tax cuts in exchange for revenue
increases as part of an overhaul of the tax
code? Or will Republicans agree to extend
Bush tax cuts except for those in the top
brackets? Will entitlements, including
Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security,
see cuts?
Can the president and Congress strike a
“grand bargain” that establishes a sustainable
relationship between annual deficits
and gross domestic product or settle for a
smaller agreement that turns off automatic
budget cuts required over the next 10
years? Will policymakers delay automatic
cuts scheduled for next year to buy more
time to make these big decisions?
Various Scenarios
If leaders can’t resolve the impasse over
taxes this fall, a deal to avoid the “fiscal
cliff” won’t happen. One can presume that
a government resigned to tax hikes and
deep budget cuts can also resign itself to
an expired Farm Bill. Even if an agreement
is reached on taxes, tax reform is a
monumental undertaking to complete in a
month. So, expect the framework this year,
but the reform in 2013.
Few see a grand bargain this fall, so the
task may possibly be limited to turning off automatic budget cuts. The super committee
process reached consensus last year on
items to be cut – including farm policy and
food stamps, although there was disagreement
on how much from each, with the
Senate and House having different aggregate
savings and cuts to food stamps.
If Washington tackles the big issues this
fall, chances are greater for a five-year
Farm Bill. If lawmakers punt matters into
next year, a modified extension of current
law is possible. A five-year Farm Bill
could be wrapped into a larger package
this fall with its savings used as a budget
offset – an optimal outcome provided the
policy is right.
Or, the current Farm Bill could be
extended as part of a larger package that
establishes a framework but leaves all the
heavy lifting of deficit reduction, including
writing a new Farm Bill, for next year. If
Washington failed to turn off automatic
cuts, these cuts would be far lower than
those proposed under the Senate and House Farm Bills.
Agriculture Committees Inspire Hope
There’s less than a month between
Thanksgiving recess and Christmas, so
spending a full week of House floor time
on the Farm Bill makes no sense, especially
if the bill will be rolled into a larger
package. Protracted debate in the lame
duck session on the bigger issues of budget
and taxes will leave little time to reconcile
differences between the House and Senate
versions of the Farm Bill, including total
savings, cuts to food stamps and the composition
of the commodity title.
Leaders of the Agriculture Committees
have done it before, when given time. This
achievement, along with their efforts to
keep the current law intact over the past
two years, inspires hope in a time of doubt
and uncertainty.
To learn more, visit www.usarice.com. |
