Rice Outlook: September 2026  

Vidalina Abadam, coordinator Jennifer Bond, Seth Wechsler, Andrew Sowell, and Ethan Sabala, contributors U.S. All-Rice Supply Is Raised for 2026/27 

The U.S. all-rice supply for marketing year 2026/27 (August 2026–July 2027) is raised 4.4 million hundredweight (cwt) this month to 266.4 million but remains the lowest in 4 years. While beginning stocks are raised 4.6 million cwt to a 40-year high of 58.4 million cwt, production is reduced 0.2 million cwt to 158.2 million, a 33-year low, as a reduced forecast for harvested area more than offsets a higher yield. Imports are maintained at 49.8 million cwt. With total use unchanged at 226.0 million cwt, ending stocks are raised by the magnitude of the supply change to 40.4 million, a 3-year low and 31 percent lower than last year. The all-rice seasonaverage farm price (SAFP) is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt, about 20 percent higher than the revised 2025/26 SAFP ($12.40), reflecting the notable shift to a relatively tight U.S. supply situation.  Figure 1

Domestic Outlook

This month’s outlook for U.S. marketing year 2026/27 is for higher all-rice supplies (larger beginning stocks more than offsetting lower domestic production), unchanged use, and increased ending stocks (table 1).

The USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Rice Stocks report released on August 20 estimated (total of rough- and milled-rice stocks on a rough-rice basis), up 4.6 million from the previous month’s forecast. This elevated stock level is mostly driven by a relatively large long-grain rice carryin of 41.8 million cwt (also at a 40-year high), up 4.2 million from last month. Carryin for medium- and short-grain stocks is raised 0.7 million cwt to 14.1 million, slightly above the previous 5-year average.

 U.S. 2026/27 Rice Crop Forecast Is Down

 This month, USDA, NASS updated 2026/27 rice acreage and yield in its September Crop Production report based on all available data, including the latest certified acreage data from the USDA, Farm Service Agency. Area harvested for all-rice is reduced 15,000 acres from last month to 2.057 million, the lowest since 1972/73 (figure 2). The all-rice acreage reduction more than offsets a higher all-rice yield (7,690 pounds per acre, up from last month’s 7,644 pounds), thus production is down by 0.2 million hundredweight (cwt) to 158.2 million.  that all-rice stocks as of August 1 are at a 40-year high of 58.4 million cwt1

By class, long-grain rice production is down from last month by 3.2 million cwt to 103.5 million cwt (both on reduced harvested area and yield) and remains the lowest since 1987/88 (figure 3).

The medium- and short-grain crop is raised 3.0 million cwt to 54.6 million cwt (on higher yield more than offsetting a reduction in harvested area), the highest in 3 years.

This year’s low acreage is primarily driven by reductions of long-grain area harvested in Southern States. Based on USDA, NASS data, Arkansas will have its smallest long-grain harvested acres (775,000 acres) since 1977/78. The other major long-grain rice producingStates (Mississippi, Missouri, Texas, and Louisiana) also have historically low acreage. Meanwhile, harvested area for medium- and short-grain rice, which is mainly produced in California, is projected at about 666,000 acres. Based on the USDA, NASS Crop Progress report, harvest is progressing well. For the week ending September 13, 62 percent of the U.S. 2026/27 rice crop was harvested, 3 percentage points ahead of last year and 12 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average (table 2). Harvest was reported ahead of the prior year for all southern rice-producing States except for Missouri. As is typical for mid-September, harvest was most advanced and almost complete in the Gulf Coast, with around 90 percent reported harvested for Texas and 95 percent for Louisiana. In California, 10 percent of the crop was reported harvested, behind last year’s pace but consistent with the State’s 5-year average.

U.S. Rice Trade Unchanged for 2026/27; Finalized for 2025/26

For 2026/27, U.S. imports are unchanged from last month at 49.8 million cwt, reflecting a 16percent rebound from the revised 2025/26 totals and a new record (surpassing 2024/25’s 49.3 million cwt) amid expectations of low long-grain rice output. By class, long-grain imports (also at record-high 43.0 million cwt) and medium/short-grain rice imports (6.8 million cwt) are both unchanged from last month. The bulk of U.S. long-grain imports are expected to continue to be comprised of Asian aromatic varieties, primarily jasmine from Thailand and basmati from India and Pakistan. Historically, Thailand and India have been the largest suppliers of medium- and short-grain rice to the United States, with China (primarily to Puerto Rico), Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan shipping smaller quantities. Argentina has also began shipping medium- and short-grain rice to Puerto Rico, partially replacing China as a supplier to the U.S. territory. With the availability of full marketing year trade data from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Census Bureau. U.S. 2025/26 all-rice imports are finalized at 42.8 million cwt, 13 percent lower than 2024/25 (figure 4). This marks the first year-to-year reduction after 4 consecutive years of increase (2020/21–2024/25), as imports of both long-grain (36.6 million cwt) and medium/shortgrain rice (6.1 million cwt) were down from 2024/25 amid the historically large rice stocks. The slowdown in 2025/26 rice imports is mostly driven by lower entries of jasmine rice from Thailand and basmati rice from India.

U.S. all-rice exports for 2026/27 are forecast unchanged from last month at 78.0 million cwt, reflecting a 3-percent reduction from the revised 2025/26 totals and the second-lowest total behind 2022/23 (64.7 million cwt). Rough and milled rice exports for 2026/27 are both unchanged (19.0 million cwt and 59.0 million cwt, respectively) (figure 5). In terms of class, exports for long-grain (50.0 million cwt) and medium/short-grain rice (28.0 million cwt) are also unchanged (figure 6). U.S. exports of rough rice and long-grain rice for 2026/27 would be at the low end, primarily on a substantial reduction in exportable supplies due to lower production. Meanwhile, medium/short-grain rice exports are similar to the prior 2 years, mainly sustained by trade arrangements in East Asia.  For 2025/26, U.S. all-rice exports are finalized at 80.6 million cwt (rough rice at 21.8 million cwt and milled rice at 58.8 million cwt). By class, 2025/26 exports of long-grain and medium/shortgrain rice are finalized at 53.6 million cwt and 27.1 million cwt, respectively.

U.S. 2026/27 Rice Domestic Use and Residual Is Unchanged; Ending Stocks Higher

The U.S. 2026/27 all-rice domestic and residual use forecast is unchanged from last month at 148.0 million, down 10 percent from the prior year and the lowest amount since 2022/23. The outlook for each class is unchanged (117.0 million cwt for long-grain and 31.0 million cwt for medium- and short-grain rice). With both components of use (domestic use and residual, and exports) unchanged from last month, ending stocks are raised from last month by the magnitude of the supply change (4.4 million cwt) to 40.4 million. This 40.4-million cwt ending inventory reflects a draw down from elevated levels in back-to-back years (2024/25 and 2025/26), which were mainly comprised of long-grain rice. Meanwhile, medium- and short-grain rice ending stocks for 2026/27 are forecast at 16.5 million cwt, up 3.7 million cwt from last month mainly on higher production but on par with the 3-year average.

  U.S. All-rice Prices for 2026/27 Are Unchanged; 2025/26 Prices Revised

This month, there are no changes to the 2026/27 all-rice season-average farm prices (SAFP), which are higher than 2025/26 across rice classes (figure 7). As such, the all-rice SAFP is unchanged at $14.90 per cwt, but 20 percent above the revised 2025/26 ($12.40 per cwt) given this year’s tight supply outlook.  The all-rice 2025/26 SAFP is revised downwards from last month by 10 cents per cwt to $12.40, given revisions to the medium- and short-grain rice price series. The California medium/shortgrain rice price (marketing year is October–September) is reduced 20 cents per cwt to $20.00 based on the USDA, NASS price and marketings data between October 2025 and July 2026. The SAFP for other States’ medium/short-grain (marketing year is August–July) are finalized at $14.70 per cwt, also down 20 cents from last month. Meanwhile, the long-grain SAFP (marketing year is August–July) is finalized at $10.40 per cwt, unchanged from last month.