JARROD T. HARDKE
STUTTGART, ARKANSAS
Each year has its own set of problems, but the 2025 season was particularly unique. Seed shortages and finding a way to profit were the main topics leading up to planting. A seemingly favorable early spring in late March quickly turned sour as heavy rains fell from April 2-5 totaling 12 to 15 inches in some locations. The resulting widespread flooding slowed additional progress, though the second two weeks of April were generally a highlight for planting.
May and early June were scattered with repeated rains that made overall management a major challenge and aggravated planting attempts. A surprising amount of rice was planted at the end of May and first week of June.
While these issues created a general industry impression of 1.1 to 1.2 million acres of rice planted, the late planting window was apparently even more successful than expected. Planted acres have tallied 1.28 million acres with an expected harvest acreage of 1.25 million acres.
The rains in May and early June meant weed control and nitrogen management were often delayed or forced into suboptimal conditions. Unwelcome herbicide injury resulted from late applications, and yield penalties resulted from delayed nitrogen.
Once rains stopped in mid-June, it was time for the state to enter a prolonged drought with persistent high nighttime temperatures. While pop-up showers did catch some areas over the summer, often the moisture was gone right after it hit the ground. The first meaningful, widespread rain was at the end of August as harvest was trying to pick up speed.
Once harvest began, it was clear that we had problems. Field yield reports ranged from terribly low to rivaling record yields from 2024. The early season variables meant that, depending on planting date, timeliness of management decisions, and luck, yields could land anywhere on a wide range.
The current state average yield estimate is 164 bushels per acre compared to a record 170 bushels per acre in 2024. There is a general expectation that the final yield estimate issued in January will fall further into the low 160s, but given the variability this year, it is difficult to say.
Milling yields were slightly improved this year. The industry hoped for significant improvement from a more spread-out planting window, but high temperatures sped maturity along. Sustained temperatures well into harvest aided with grain yields of late-planted rice but contributed once again to over drying of grain in the field and hampering milling yields.
We did experience some rains during harvest to re-wet drying grain, but we also escaped tropical moisture like in 2024. That may have been the only thing that saved milling yields from a repeat of 2024.
The economics of rice production in Arkansas are only looking worse for 2026. Alternative crop options like soybean and corn show some profit potential, while rice currently has no scenario where a profit pencils out. With that said, my current estimation is for only 1 million acres of rice planted in Arkansas. The April planting window will likely determine whether we end up over or under that mark. The last time Arkansas planted less than 1 million rice acres was 1983. ∆
JARROD T. HARDKE
PROFESSOR/RICE EXTENSION AGRONOMIST
UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS SYSTEM DIVISION OF AGRICULTURE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICE