Vidalina Abadam, coordinator Jennifer Bond, Andrew Sowell, Seth Wechsler, and Ethan Sabala, contributors
U.S. All Rice Supplies Lowered for 2026/27
There are several revisions this month on both the supply and use side of the U.S. 2026/27 rice balance sheet. On the supply side, all rice production is lowered 21.9 million hundredweight (cwt) to a 39-year low of 153.3 million cwt on reduced harvested area indicated in the USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) June 30 Acreage report. Beginning stocks are lowered 3.0 million cwt based on stronger exports in 2025/26. This is partly offset by a 4.0million cwt increase in imports (all long-grain) to a record 49.8 million cwt given the reduced availability of domestic rice. On the use side, all rice domestic consumption is reduced 8.0 million cwt to 146.0 million and exports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 78.0 million. Combined, the supply and use revisions lowered ending stocks by 11.9 million cwt to a 4-year low of 30.9 million. Reflecting the tighter supply outlook, the 2026/27 all rice season average farm price is raised $1.40 to $14.90 per cwt as prices are up for both long-grain and medium-short grain rice.
Figure 1 U.S. rice supply and use
Note: cwt = hundredweight, (*) denotes estimate, (**) denotes forecast. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service using data from USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
U.S. 2026/27 Rice Crop Forecast Lower On Smaller Harvested Area The U.S. 2026/27 all rice production forecast is reduced 21.9 million cwt from last month to a 39-year low of 153.3 million cwt, about 26 percent below the prior year (table 1, figure 1). By class, long-grain rice production is projected at 104.1 million cwt, 18.4 million cwt below the previous forecast and the lowest since 1993/94 (figure 2). The medium- and short-grain crop is projected at 49.2 million cwt, 3.5 million cwt below the previous forecast and the lowest since 2022/23.
These rice production revisions are driven by a lower outlook for planted and harvested rice area reported by USDA, NASS on June 30 in its Acreage report. The estimates are based primarily on surveys conducted during the first 2 weeks of June. All rice harvested area is reduced from last month by 287,000 acres to 1.979 million acres, almost 28 percent lower than the prior year and the lowest area since 1972/73 (figure 3). On the other hand, the all rice yield of 7,746 pounds per acre is marginally higher than the previous month (7,732 pounds per acre) and is based on 10-year yield trends by class. The first USDA, NASS survey-based all rice yield forecasts (for both the United States and for each reported State) will be released in the August 12 USDA, NASS Crop Production report.
Compared with the prior year, the all rice harvested acreage forecast in June is down 761,000 acres as area is down across all 6 producing States, primarily for long-grain rice in the Southern States. If realized, Arkansas would have its smallest long-grain harvested acres since 1977/78, Louisiana since 2006/07, and both Mississippi and Texas since at least 1972/73. Factors including unfavorable rice prices and elevated input costs led producers to plant alternative crops. Meanwhile, harvested area for medium- and short-grain rice, which are mainly produced in California, is forecast down 53,000 acres from the prior year to 604,000, the lowest since 2022/23. In August, USDA, Farm Service Agency (FSA) will release its first estimates for prevented plantings for the 2025/26 rice crop by State. This data, along with USDA, FSA certified acreage and USDA, Risk Management Agency data, will be used in USDA, NASS planted and harvested area estimates. U.S. 2026/27 Rice Imports Raised; Unchanged for 2025/26 With less domestic rice available, all rice imports for 2026/27 are forecast 4.0 million cwt higher from last month to a record 49.8 million, overtaking 2024/25 (49.3 million cwt) and about 15 percent higher than 2025/26 (unchanged at 43.2 million) (figure 4). Long-grain imports for 2026/27 solely drive the 4.0-million-cwt increase and are now forecast at 43.0 million cwt, up 16 percent from a year earlier. The bulk of U.S. long-grain imports are expected to remain Asian aromatic varieties, primarily jasmine from Thailand and basmati from India and Pakistan. U.S. 2026/27 medium- and short-grain rice imports are unchanged at 6.8 million cwt, about 10 percent higher than the prior year. Thailand and India historically have been the largest suppliers of medium- and short-grain rice to the United States, with China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan shipping smaller quantities. Argentina has recently begun shipping medium- and short-grain rice to Puerto Rico, partially replacing China as a supplier to the U.S. territory.
U.S. Rice Exports Lowered for 2026/27 Raised for 2025/26
U.S. all rice exports for 2026/27 are reduced 1.0 million cwt from last month to 78.0 million cwt, a 6-percent reduction from the prior year (figure 5). This 1.0-million cwt reduction is solely driven by medium- and short-grain exports, which are adjusted down to 28.0 million cwt on an expected slowdown in exports to Northeast Asia (particularly Japan) relative to the strongerthan-average 2025/26. Meanwhile, long-grain exports for 2026/27 are unchanged at 50.0 million cwt, reflecting a 7-percent reduction from 2025/26. For 2025/26, U.S. all rice exports are raised 3.0 million cwt from last month to 83.0 million as a 4.0-million cwt increase in long-grain exports offset a 1.0-million cwt decrease in medium- and short-grain exports. Long-grain exports are now estimated at 54.0 million on a stronger-thanexpected export pace in June, as reflected in the USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Export Sales data. USDA, FAS data indicate a continued pace of U.S. milled rice sales to Haiti and that sales and shipments to Iraq have finally gone through in June. In addition, a relatively large volume of U.S. rough rice sales to Mexico in June was recorded. U.S. 2025/26 medium- and short-grain rice exports are reduced 1.0 million cwt to 29.0 million, and thus partly offsetting the 4.0-million cwt increase in long-grain exports. The relatively strong export pace of medium- and short-grain rice to Japan and South Korea are offset by a slowerthan-anticipated pace to other markets. In particular, exports to Bangladesh (mostly for food aid) are expected to be down compared to the prior year. Despite this decrease, the 29.0 million cwt of exports for 2025/26 are comparable with 2024/25 and remain one of the strongest in recent years.
U.S. 2026/27 Rice Domestic Use and Residual Reduced
The U.S. 2026/27 all rice domestic and residual use forecast is lowered 8.0 million cwt to 146.0 million cwt, down 23.0 million from the year-earlier record. The downward revision, mostly for long-grain rice is based on smaller U.S. supplies. The long-grain domestic and residual use forecast is lowered 7.0 million cwt to 116.0 million, 15 percent lower than the previous year’s record high and the lowest since 2022/23. Medium- and short-grain domestic and residual use forecast is reduced 1.0 million cwt to 30.0 million cwt, down 6 percent from a year earlier and the lowest since 2014/15.
U.S. 2026/27 Rice Ending Stocks Lowered
The net combination of the U.S. 2026/27 supply and use revisions lowered all rice ending stocks by 11.9 million cwt to a 4-year low of 30.9 million, which is 40 percent below a year earlier. Long-grain ending stocks account for the majority of the revision, with an 11.4-million cwt reduction to 17.7 cwt million, the lowest since 2019/20. Medium- and short-grain ending stocks are lowered 0.5 million cwt to 10.4 million, 16 percent below a year earlier and the lowest since 2022/23.
All Rice Price for 2026/27 Lifted on Tighter Supplies
The 2026/27 all rice season average farm price (SAFP) for 2026/27 is raised $1.40 per cwt from the prior month to $14.90 with prices for both classes raised this month on a tight production outlook (table 2). The 2026/27 long-grain SAFP is increased $1.50 per cwt to $13.50, the California medium- and short-grain SAFP by $0.50 per cwt to $20.50, and the Other States medium- and short-grain SAFP by $1.50 to $15.00. There were no changes made to the 2025/26 rice prices.
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