Bangladesh Part Three In The Overview Of The World’s Top Five Rice Producers

RICHARD E. HICKS

OCEAN SPRINGS, MISSISSIPPI

Welcome back to our overview of the world’s major rice producers. This month we highlight

Bangladesh. This may be confusing to some of you old timers, but this used to be referred to as East Pakistan. I am too old to remember how this transition came about but I do recall a famine, starvation and a rock concert to save the people from their demise. I do know that when India was granted independence from the UK, the majority Hindu regions became India and the Muslim areas became East and West Pakistan. The two areas were separated by India so this is probably the reason for the ultimate split. Geographically, they were disconnected by a large distance so over time I suppose they drifted apart and wanted self-rule. Now that we have exhausted my historical knowledge let us dive into the relevance and importance of rice production in this region.

Rice is the staple food in Bangladesh as it appears to be an integral sector in every major rice producer. This is an important factor because when you are your own best customer, rice exporting becomes secondary to feeding your own population. This does in a small way limit their ability to export and, in another way, give our producers a bit of an edge as we can more than produce our own needs. We are not limited by monsoons or the lack of. This does give us a bit of a competitive edge. I will interject a thought here as I have noticed one major factor in my research for this series of articles. Climate change seems to be one of the major concerns in these countries when it comes to expanding productive capacity. I will label this the false claim that it is as the effort crossed all national boundaries and seems to be an important aspect of the ongoing propaganda efforts that has established climate change as a given. The fact that the climate has been warming over the past 250,000 years and our recent ice age 12,000 to 15,000 years ago would have rendered rice production or any other ag effort a moot point.

Bangladesh as with most other major rice producers are facing increasing populations. This factor alone has driven many of these producers to rapidly increase production. At this writing rice acreage is estimated to be about eleven million hectares. Paddy rice production has increased from a level of fifteen million tons fifty years ago to about fifty-five million tons in 2024. This can be considered quite an achievement but does not indicate potential production increases. With a rapidly increasing population Bangladesh is facing several daunting challenges, water shortages, limited land availability and labor shortages. The lack of new technologies is also seen as a limiting factor, but I have no doubt that the UN and any other do gooder institutions will be more than happy to fill the void in many of these critical areas.

As stated earlier, rice is the staple food so increasing production is a main priority. Rice production accounts for 95% plus of total grain production. When I look at facts on production in these developing countries I am always struck by the fact that while production has increased significantly in the past decades, I wonder how much more this can continue to increase. We have seen exactly the same events here as the US with yields continuing to increase. This is the factor I see limiting increase in countries like Bangladesh unless we see a massive technology transfer. We, however, are not facing such challenges.

Bangladesh has three rice growing seasons. The monsoon, this of course can be limited by a lack of or too much monsoon. The summer crop grown without the heavy reliance on the free water program and the dry season crop which has to rely on irrigation. While three seasons sounds impressive as an overview, it is possible for the three-strike rule to limit production in any given year. I would think the monsoon crop would likely be the most at risk due to the dicey nature of the Asia monsoon season. I do not follow this closely, but it seems almost a feast or famine type existence with too much or too little getting the most press.

An overview rice has been produced in this region for at least 4,000 years and is a major contributor to employment, nutrition and national income. No dive into Bangladesh rice production can be considered complete without a quick overview of the Green revolution of the 1960’s. My research here is sketchy at best because it sounded to quasi-Marxist at worst and full blown state controlled effort at best. It was, however, a success so I mention it in passing. As with all agricultural production this is an ongoing effort. New techniques and new varieties are constantly being researched. The research has produced positive results over time and has allowed the country to firmly move into the number three rice producer slot, all the while, reducing the amount of rice imports. An important note I feel worth mentioning the Covid panic had a big impact on many nations as hoarding became a major effort that led to significant prices increases. Export restrictions went into effect in 2022. Another downside to letting the snake eat that bat in the open-air market in a still unknown location.

I will now delve into my production outlook for the future. Technology seems to be one of the major limiting factors in driving Bangladesh past the number three slot. As with all third world countries, Bangladesh faces common problems pests poor handling infrastructure, market manipulation. labor shortages and the lack of modern farming practices. I feel most of the production is done using the same arcane practice that have existed for decades if not centuries. Given this outlook and the fact, they are their best customer unlike China and India, I do not see them becoming a major player in the export game in the short run. I think the issues will continue to plague Bangladesh in the foreseeable future. Whether or not they have hit the proverbial wall has yet to be seen. Unlike the top two producers I see to many limiting factors that will be very difficult if not impossible to overcome. They are producing large rice crops, and they are feeding the population. The limitations of weather and land will not improve in any way. A large influx of capital or technology is unlikely as there is no sense of urgency. Even if there were, aid would probably come in the form of handouts in case of a disaster, not long-term investment with a view to increased production.

In conclusion, we feel the status quo in Bangladesh will remain in place. Gradual increases in production will continue to be the norm. Next time we will look at Indonesia the fourth largest rice producer in the world. Until next time.   ∆

RICHARD HICKS IS THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF THE R.E. HICKS GROUP LLC AN NFA REGISTERED INDEPENDENT IB.

I can be reached at 618-301-2244, 618-363-0252 sat phone 1-254-219-7336.

Note: Past Performance Is Not Indicative Of Future Results.