• By Scott Stiles •
On July July 11, 2021, the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The most significant adjustments this month for long-grain were made to the old crop (2020-21) balance sheet.
There were no supply changes. However, old crop domestic and residual was lowered by 5 million to 118 million hundredweight. Exports were increased 1 million to 65 million cwt – slightly above 2019’s 64.8 million.
As of July 8, long-grain old crop export sales were 3% ahead of the prior year. Shipments were 1% ahead. Rough rice sales were doing all the work.
Milled sales are 27% below last year with none reported to Iraq. With a 5 million reduction in domestic use and a 1 million increase in exports, the net change was a 4 million increase in 20/21 ending stocks to 32.8 million.
Turning to new crop (2021-22), beginning stocks were increased 4 million cwt to 32.8 million. Imports were unchanged from last month at 31 million.
Imports are record large and up 11% from last year. New crop long-grain production was unchanged this month at 152.3 million — down 11% from 2020. Survey-based yield projections will be used in August. Of note: Total supply is very near unchanged from a year ago at 216.1 million cwt.
For new crop demand, domestic use was lowered 1 million cwt to 120 million, the highest on record. Exports were increased 2 million cwt to 63.0 million.
This is down marginally from 65 million in 2020-21. USDA expects more export competition from South America in 2021-22. Projected 2021-22 long-grain ending stocks were raised by 3 million cwt to 33.1 million.
The 2021-22 season-average farm price is unchanged this month at $12.80 per cwt. The 2020-21 season average farm price was lowered 10 cents to $12.50 per cwt.
Rice futures recovered this week with the September contract trading Friday morning about 38 cents/cwt above last Friday’s close. Flat price offers for August to October delivered rice are in the $5.76 to $5.89 range.
September rice futures may hit some chart resistance in the $13.40 to $13.60 range — a congestion area the contract trading in prior to the June acreage report.
CBOT Rough Rice Sep ’21 (ZRU21)
Chicago Board of Trade grains in general have had a good week with November soybeans again trading above $14 per bushel. Extremely hot and dry weather is forecast to settle over the Dakotas next week.
North and South Dakota have a combined 12.7 million acres of soybeans this year. Every bushel counts in 2021.
Scott Stiles is a University of Arkansas Extension agricultural economist. He may be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.