Friday, September 24, 2021

Rice market update for the week ending July 9, 2021

• By Scott Stiles •

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports will be released Monday, July 12, at 11 a.m. central time.

As we discussed last week, the results of the June acreage survey will be used in the July production estimates. The June acreage report did include a projection for long-grain harvested acres of 2.041 million.

Assuming a national average long-grain yield of 7,479 pounds (166.2 bushels per acre) implies the July production estimate would be 152.6 million cwt, slightly above USDA’s June estimate of 152.3 million cwt.

In grain futures, it’s been a week for the bears as traders aggressively liquidated long positions on improving Midwest weather forecasts. Specific to rice, the June acreage report was a disappointment.

Since June 30, the September rice contract has lost about 5% or 64 cents per cwt. The next key layer of support for the September contract is at $12.50/cwt.

Export sales of rice were light for the week ending July 1. Milled rice business with Haiti over the coming weeks will be of particular interest. The market’s focus now turns to Monday’s USDA reports.

july 9 cbot rice futures chart

Scott Stiles is a University of Arkansas Extension agricultural economist. He may be reached at sstiles@uaex.uada.edu.

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