Market Update

Simple economics

Mississippi River barge

With an imbalance between supply and demand, lower production and supplies will be needed in 2017 to strengthen prices. Read More »

Exports lag

rice harvest

Market needs a spark in demand, particularly from foreign buyers, to reach upside price potential. Read More »

Uphill battle

rice planting

Erratic export demand, strong U.S. dollar and higher U.S. rice prices conspire to soften short-term market outlook. Read More »

All factors suggest another year of lower prices

By Kurt Guidry LSU AgCenter The rice market has been in a mostly downward trending pattern since the start of 2015. Large production and supplies from the 2014 crop have laid heavy on this market, seeing futures prices falling from around $12 per hundredweight ($19.44 per barrel) to start 2015 to the current level around $10 per hundredweight ($16.20 per ... Read More »

Market Update

While there is always a chance of a few surprises, it appears that 2014 was a good production year with aboveaverage yields and good to very good quality being reported. Now the focus will be on finding enough demand for rice supplies that are estimated at nearly 10 percent higher than the previous year. Based on USDA's October 2014 supply and demand estimates, demand is expected to increase by seven percent for the 2014/15 marketing year. While positive, this increase isn't expected to be enough to keep ending stocks from experiencing a sharp increase – nearly nine million hundredweights (cwts), a 27 percent increase from last year and five percent above the five-year average. While domestic rice usage and total rice exports are expected to increase during the 2014/15 marketing year, the slow start to export sales has placed a cloud over the market. The reported good quality of the 2014 crop and the current lower prices should help continue to support domestic demand. The struggle with demand has been in the export market. To this point, total rice exports are down 13 percent from a year ago. With exports for the 2014/15 marketing year expected to be up by 10 percent, this market will need to see a significant improvement in export business moving forward to meet those expectations. And while it is still very early in the marketing year, the slow start is concerning. This is especially true for longgrain milled rice exports, which are currently running 27 percent behind last year's pace. Without some improvement in export business, there seems little to entice mills from moving from current price levels. Read More »